TIMING & CONFIDENCE · 2 min read
How far ahead can we forecast?
The difference between the live map, the three-day activity outlook and the seven-night calendar.
The next hour: short-term activity
NOAA’s northern lights model typically looks around 30–90 minutes ahead, depending on upstream solar-wind conditions. If those inputs are unavailable, its fallback can have no lead time. Use the actual forecast timestamp shown on the map, not a fixed countdown.
The next three days: a broader outlook
The calendar uses NOAA’s issued three-day Kp forecast. It shows the highest predicted Kp in three-hour intervals overlapping a night’s dark window. This gives broad activity context. It cannot predict the exact start, brightness or duration of a display at your location.
Seven nights: weather and darkness
Later calendar nights help you plan using weather forecasts and calculated dark hours. Beyond the available activity outlook, we show “Too early to forecast”. Later weather samples may be several hours apart, and details can change. A seven-night calendar is not a seven-night prediction of northern lights activity.
Check which time you are reading
Observation time tells you when a measurement was taken; issue time tells you when a forecast was published; forecast time tells you when it applies. Destination timelines use local time. Source timestamps labelled UTC use a different time standard. “Stale” means an update is overdue; missing data does not mean zero activity.
What to look for
Plan ahead with weather and darkness, then check activity closer to the night. Always read the forecast’s valid time and any missing-data labels.
See the current forecast